OMTM (One Metric That Matters)

Definition
OMTM is the single number that, at the current stage, best predicts whether the business is winning, chosen so every team rallies behind one goal instead of several.

Why it matters

Focus is scarce. Spread across twenty priorities, a team makes small progress on all of them and a breakthrough on none. When each team optimises a different number, the gains do not add up to company growth. Naming one metric forces the useful argument about which number really drives value, and it exposes vanity metrics that do not correlate with revenue.

How to apply it

  • Identify the current bottleneck first, then pick the metric that measures it.
  • Prefer a rate or ratio to a running total, because ratios show change and totals only grow.
  • Choose a number the team believes it can move within weeks, not years.
  • Test every proposed project against one question: does it move this number?
  • Keep a few guardrail metrics beside it, so the main number cannot be raised at the cost of quality.
  • Retire it when the bottleneck moves, and name the next one deliberately.

What it is

The One Metric That Matters comes from the book Lean Analytics by Alistair Croll and Benjamin Yoskovitz. The idea is to pick one number that tells the business whether it is solving its most important problem right now, and to track other numbers only in support of it.

The number changes with stage. An early product might focus on how many new users come back in a second week. Once that works, the focus might move to revenue per customer or to acquisition cost. A consultancy with feast-or-famine leads could choose qualified leads per week.

Common mistakes

  • Picking a number that is easy to inflate, such as raw sign-ups, and then watching quality fall.
  • Keeping the same metric for years after the problem has changed.
  • Confusing it with a North Star metric, which is a longer-term measure of customer value.
Worked example

Suppose a seven-person SaaS team has a steady stream of sign-ups but few users who come back. The team agrees that for now one number matters most: the share of new users who return in their second week. Ad spend and social reach are judged by whether they help that figure.

The number sits on one screen in Databox, which pulls it from the product database and the analytics tool, so nobody compiles a spreadsheet on Monday morning. Say the figure starts at 18 per cent. The team spends six weeks on a reminder sequence and a shorter first setup, and it climbs to 24 per cent. When it reaches the agreed level, the next bottleneck is chosen and the metric changes on purpose.

Tools in the example

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  1. Article

    North Star Metric

    The longer-lasting measure of customer value.

  2. Article

    Pirate metrics

    A funnel framework for choosing which stage to focus on.

  3. Article

    Prioritisation

    How work is ranked against the chosen number.

  4. Article

    Goodhart's Law

    Why a single number needs guardrails.