Portfolio model

A single bet either works or it does not, and a business that depends on one has no fallback if it stalls. Several bets spread that risk. They also give a fair test of where attention pays off, because without one the time tends to go to the loudest project rather than the one with the best numbers.

The model also protects cashflow. One product's slow month is covered by another's steady income.

• Cap the time and money any one bet gets before it has proved anything.
• Track the same few numbers for every bet, such as revenue, growth rate and hours spent, so they can be compared on facts.
• Review on a fixed date, for example monthly, and shrink or stop bets that are not moving.
• Agree kill criteria in advance, so stopping is a rule and not an argument.
• Reinvest freed time and cash into the best performer.
• Keep the number of live bets small enough that each gets real attention.

The idea is borrowed from investing. Instead of putting everything into one product, channel or client, an owner splits effort and money across several small bets, watches the same numbers for each, and moves resources toward whichever works.

Say a solo operator runs three small software products. Each costs a few hours a week to maintain. Two plateau after six months and the third keeps growing. The operator shifts marketing time and money from the two to the one that is growing.

• Running too many bets, so none gets enough effort to show a result.
• Keeping losers alive out of attachment.
• Judging bets on feeling because each one reports different numbers.